In the latest Mad-Magazine-like-Spy-vs.-Spy move, the House Dems have hatched a plan which reminds me of their ill-fated plan to delay seating Senator-elect Scott Brown until they had another ObamaCare vote on the Senate floor.

The Dems backed down. Similarly, they will back down from the Slaughter plan.

Former Speaker Gingrich describes the Slaughter plan in a tweet about a Brian Darling blog:

“Incredible. We’ve gone from passing bills without reading them to passing bills without voting on them.”

They haven’t tried it yet, they are thinking about it.

But now that the Senate Parliamentarian has ruled the obvious, that you can not vote on a reconciliation measure if the bill you are attempting to reconcile has not been signed into law — the Slaughter plan looks both desperate and comical.

It is also (obviously) unconstitutional and will, if carried out, create a public outcry that will make burning witches at the stake look rational.

Just like the Black Spy thought the White Spy was caged and an easy target, the trillion dollar President and the Speaker find themselves without the votes and trying again to cheat the U.S. Constitution, public opinion and voters who want Congress to stop the irrational ObamaCare quest and start over. Their persistent problem is they keep causing their colleagues mortal political harm with their increasingly hare-brained-Slaughter schemes.

You know, like lets-use-reconciliation-to-pass-the-hated-Senate-ObamaCare-bill. (It’s no shock that Obama has hit his lowest Gallup poll approval rating ever.)

Ironically, the trillion dollar President has created a bi-partisan health care effort, it’s just that it’s a bi-partisan alliance against his bill. What is causing cognitive dissonance in the White House and among the Democratic Party’s cognoscenti is the simple fact that the only thing bi-partisan about ObamaCare is the opposition to it.

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The Speaker’s flip-flops are catching up with her.

And the strangeness is starting to show (see the video): we have to pass the Senate bill so the public can see what is in it.

Her famed control over house members minds is fading: She supported Chairman Rangel right up until she dumped him. She did not have the muscle to impose upon the Ways and Means Committee, her choice of Chairman.

And on ObamaCare, the Speaker insisted the Senate go first, that she could not pass the Senate bill, that the House would not be a rubber stamp for the Senate, and that the Senate must prove it will act as she says it will, which is for the Senate to change their own bill into a bill the House wants. Uh, huh.

But the Speaker has flipped on all of it. Now, the House will go first, the House will pass the Senate bill without changing it (i.e. rubber stamp) and the House will act without proof the Senate will actually act in the way the House wants it to act.

Furthermore, the Speaker must now insist the following will not happen: the White House will not take the House passed Senate bill, sign it, declare victory, and move onto jobs.

The Speaker must argue that the Senate and the White House will put itself through months of more ObamaCare political pain, by letting the Republicans bog down the bill in the Senate, in a huge fight that will be another example of the Dems changing the rules and ignoring the public to pass a bill independent voters and seniors hate.

But assuming you believe that reality will be suspended — that the irrational is rational — and the White House and the Senate will act to bail out the House from passing a bill they don’t agree with, then there is the immovable Byrd rule problem on any abortion “fix.”

The Bryd rule prohibits legislating on a reconciliation bill. The rule is named after the still-serving Senator Byrd (D-WV). Sixty votes are needed to over-ride the Byrd rule on reconciliation. Both the Byrd rule and Senator Byrd himself stands directly in the path of legislating on abortion on any reconciliation bill.

You see, Senator Byrd is very vigorous in his support of the Byrd rule. He will vote with the 41 Republicans to enforce the Byrd rule. And the Byrd rule is very clear on abortion — precedents have been set — you cannot legislate on abortion on a reconciliation bill.

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The media is now pulling out all the stops to help Obama win the House vote. They know he is in deep trouble and they need to help. And they will keep helping, reporting as if the vote is in the bag.

But do not fear. Jay Cost has the real house vote count. (Rep. Massa’s claims that he is the swing vote, notwithstanding.)

If you want to help, call the Members of Congress on Jay’s list, and follow it daily. Organize demonstrations in front of their offices. Put them on YouTube. Call them. Email them. Contribute money to their opponents. Seek out these Members of Congress in their districts. Button-hole them. Do not let up until the House votes. (Sorry Jay, your list is better than Minority Whip Cantor’s memo.)

There is more good news. Even former Majority Leader Senator Daschle, who has been the unseen hand pushing Obama on health care, says on video this is the end of the ObamaCare effort. After this, it is over.

By the way, ObamaCare did not die and rise back to life. It has been dead for a long time. The President, the Speaker, Axelrod and Plume keep insisting that it is alive because they live in a fantasyland bubble. (Don’t start living the dream too.) There is a view other than ObamaCare is dead or is alive. You could be like Hennessey: ObamaCare is both dead and alive. His piece is titled Health Care CPR, but in reality, Hennessey’s view is it is mostly dead.

The Speaker and the White House can not allow themselves to believe anything other than they will win, because they have developed the intellectual behavior of the politically irrational.

Look at this quote from fantasy-land-spinner-in-chief-David-Axelrod — the man the New York Times says is the last person the trillion dollar President talks to before making a decision:

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One hour and forty minutes after the White House issued their Easter deadline for ObamaCare to pass Congress, Democratic House Leaders conceded “they may not meet President Barack Obama’s challenge for swift action.”

Whenever the House Leadership moves a vote, it means they don’t have the votes. In Spanish, that’s mañana.

With the White House issuing a deadline and the Dem House leaders immediately and publicly saying, not so much, the White House looks silly and limp and powerless. They look even more out of touch and desperate than they did when President Obama announced that he will not quit with his self-appointed Captain Ahab role of hunting the great-health-care-white-whale.

But the best news (finally) is that a group of Democrats are willing to have News at 11 film them shooting ObamaCare in the head.

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Ending this health care nightmare comes down to one thing, and one thing only: expend all remaining to defeat the Senate bill in the House.

The Speaker cannot pass the Senate bill now. She does not have the votes. She has never had the votes — ever, to pass the Senate bill. (The AP list of 9 Dems who voted No who may vote yes is a fantasyland list — as in, if you think they will switch to Yes, you are living in Fantasyland. If a member who did vote No, now, when the politics are so clearly against it, switches to a yes, they might as well just resign. Which some might. But, really, it is good-bye for No votes that switch to Yes.)

While No votes switching to Yes is not credible, here is something that is credible. Yes votes that switch to No.

There is one New York Dem Yes vote who announced today, is now a no:

“U.S. Rep. Michael Arcuri, D-Utica, said Tuesday he would vote against the Senate version of the health care bill that could soon go before the House of Representatives for approval.

“Arcuri, who voted in early November in favor of the House version of the health care bill, said he is against the Senate bill for three main reasons:

“He doesn’t want to see the bill passed as a “mega bill,” and he believes more success would be had by breaking the bill apart and passing aspects of it incrementally, he said.

“Arcuri also said he isn’t comfortable with the possible Democratic strategy of passing the bill through reconciliation.”

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Senator Conrad, the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee said yesterday that reconciliation can only be used if the House passes the Senate bill first. As Sen. Conrad declared, “I don’t know of any way, I don’t know of any way where you can have a reconciliation bill pass before the bill that it is meant to reconcile passes.” Neither do I.

Then, the kicker: “When reminded that House Democrats don’t want to do health care in that order, Conrad said bluntly: ‘Fine, then it’s dead.‘”

Now, the Speaker finds herself in the position of having to pass a bill she says she does not have the votes to pass.

Without passing the Senate bill she can’t pass, the Speaker can’t do reconciliation. (See Sen. Conrad, above.)

OK. Now, this next part is really, really important.

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This video (H/T Drudge Report) captures an important piece of recent history, when the GOP controlled the White House and the Senate. The Democrats repeatedly attacked the Republicans for attempting the “nuclear option.” Senator Reid described the Republican strategy as an arrogant power grab.

Senator Dodd said he has never in his time in the Senate passed any bill of any importance that did not have both a Democratic and Republican leader. Then Senator Biden said “I pray God when the Democrats take back control we don’t make the kind of naked power grab you are doing.”

The out-takes from this video will make some great 30 second campaign ads if the Dems try reconciliation.

Enjoy:

Turns out that the interpretation that the Dems are bluffing on reconciliation is a charitable interpretation. It assumes they have a plan.

The other alternative view, that the President really is serious about reconciliation, is so unserious that most in D.C. don’t take it seriously. (Read Eric Cantor’s House Whip Count Memo here about why the Dems do not have the votes in the House for Reconciliation.)

The naivete, the inexperience, the reality-bending-ability to seriously believe that one more speech or one more try will make it pass, must be so pervasive in the mind of the President and those around him, that you have to wonder what will happen to the psyche of these Pollyannas when reality finally and urgently cannot be ignored or hidden, from what will be their ever widening eyes.

Add the irrationality of the Speaker on passing “universal health care” to the mix, and you have the makings of yet another uber-trainwreck — the first was last August, the second December-January, and now, the third in April-May or May-June?

Meanwhile, yesterday, the Chairman of the Blue Dogs Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) said “I was actually surprised that they’re pushing it again.” Shuler also said “I don’t think a comprehensive bill can pass.”

The Speaker got tiff-ity when she heard of Shuler’s remarks: “You know what? With all due respect to everyone, we just saw the president’s proposal today. I don’t know that anybody in our caucus is saying we’re not going to pass a bill.”

But the President is not taking about “a bill,” he’s talking (for about the millionth time — including a speech to a joint session of Congress) about passing his bill. Well, it’s not actually a bill. There is no legislative language and it has not been introduced in Congress. Obama has more of a power point.

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The ObamaCare roll out has run right into, well, itself. From the true-believer-ObamaCare-cheerleader-a-go-go, Jonathan Cohn:

“Apparently unresolved, still, is the question of which House votes first. And that’s no small thing.

“But the bigger question, really, is the broader one: Will Democrats, particularly in the House, get past their fear and vote for the bill? Really that’s what the summit is all about–convincing nervous Democrats that the Republicans really aren’t interested in compromise and that health care reform, despite the poll numbers, is still a good idea.”

The above is a classic example of irrational thought defined. They have no legislative language. (This is another way of saying they do not know what is going to be in the bill, or what it will say once they decide what to put in it.) They know House Dems are freaking out because ObamaCare is hated by the public, the seniors and the independent voters. They do not have a clear reconciliation strategy, despite their chest beating and big bet making while holding a pair of twos. They do not even know if they will start in the House or the Senate.

This will end badly for the White House and the Dems.

The Congressional Budget Office Director, in today’s blog, says CBO cannot “score” or provide a cost estimate for Obama’s health care plan because CBO needs more detail.

It’s amazing, the Trillion Dollar President wants to change the world, but doesn’t have legislative language to do it. Not even to give to CBO. Where’s the bill?

The CBO Director went out of his way today (in the first two sentences) to say WE’VE NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE!

The opening from his blog:

“This morning the Obama Administration released a description of its health care proposal, and CBO has already received several requests to provide a cost estimate for that proposal. We had not previously received the proposal…”

And what sort of plan vapor bill do you make public without consulting with CBO?

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Micheal E. Hammond, former General Counsel of the U.S. Senate Steering Committee, is one of the preeminent experts on U.S. Senate procedure. Here is what he says about passing ObamaCare via reconciliation.

February 22, 2010, 10:00 a.m. EST
MEMORANDUM
FROM: Michael Hammond
RE: New Obama Health Care Draft

As of this hour, there is an 11-page document on the White House web site outlining Obama’s newest version of ObamaCare. Before laying out a summary of the most recent Obama proposal, I would like to make a couple preliminary points:

PRELIMINARY POINT #1: OBAMACARE CANNOT BE PASSED
THROUGH RECONCILIATION

There are several reasons for this:

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Brian Darling of the Heritage Foundation has moved the entire health care world from refitting weapons and/or R & R to DEFCON Two with these two posts, here and here. Darling is not only one of the few real operational experts on Senate Rules, he is a highly effective operative for the good guys. If Darling says the Dems are going to try it, they will. DRUDGE is now on board with his front page all-caps headline: BACK FROM THE DEAD: DEMS VOW TO RAHM THROUGH HEALTHCARE.

Add to this that Senator Reid just gave an interview saying Congress will pass ObamaCare in 60 days, and FireDogLake is reporting the Leadership is on-board for the reconciliation strategy. Also, FireDogLake is pushing the public option to be included in reconciliation. TIME and Washington Monthly are reporting that Reid intends to use reconciliation to insert the public option. Furthermore, former White House Communication Director for Obama, Anita Dunn says ObamaCare will pass Congress by November, just after Obama made another push for ObamaCare at his Nevada town hall.

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Elizabeth Drew has written a long, biased and tortured health care reform review of recent events. Two items of interest appear at the end of the article.

“Obama’s move to take the issue to the Republicans by inviting them to a half-day, bipartisan meeting at Blair House on February 25 to discuss health care—without, as the Republicans had been insisting, scrapping the pending bill and starting over—was intended to show the public (and wobbly Democrats) who the obstructionists are. (And Obama’s recent televised meeting in Maryland with House Republicans had been a big hit.)”

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No legislation will be signed as a result of the White House health care meeting.

Congress is politically radioactive. ObamaCare is hated. And never has a Speaker’s low approval rating created male-trance-like-obedience to injure themselves like some hilarious Super Bowl commercial.

According to the sisterhood-in-chief: Obama “signaled early on that he could be rolled when he ceded too much power to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in putting together the stimulus bill.” Note to historians: Obama’s ‘let Congress decide’ masked the legislative inability of the perpetual candidate, but also the fact he was rolled by her.

And does anybody believe that, to paraphrase Senator Rockefeller, the unbelievable President Obama can talk any thing into existence?

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The Trillion Dollar President’s $2.5 Trillion ObamaCare continues to unspool (from AP):

“First he called congressional Democrats’ yearlong march toward health care overhaul an ugly process. Now President Barack Obama wants to talk directly with Republicans, the very people his Capitol Hill allies call obstinate and uncooperative.

It’s no wonder Democratic lawmakers are less than enthusiastic about Obama’s overture to the GOP.

The president has blamed special deals cut on Capitol Hill for the public’s skepticism about health care legislation, distancing himself from what he’s called “this Congress,” even though his White House was closely involved in the process. For their part, some congressional Democrats clamored for stronger leadership from Obama after an upset loss in a special election last month denied Democrats their filibuster-proof Senate majority, plunging the health overhaul into disarray.

But with the legislation languishing, the bipartisan health care summit Obama has set for later this month almost has to break the logjam, even if neither Democrats nor Republicans are particularly excited about it. Either the two parties come together against all odds or the event demonstrates that no bipartisan outcome is possible, spurring Democrats to act alone. Or, the summit is a bust and the entire health care overhaul falls apart.

“I think this is sort of his last-ditch effort” at a bipartisan deal, said Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee.

Clearly this is supposed to create the atmospheric conditions for the Trillion Dollar President to say — we tried to work with the Republicans — and so now we are going to take the reconciliation approach.

The forces that have brought ObamaCare to its current state, will defeat the Dems in detail. I really cannot wait for the delusionals to walk off the cliff again — and this time, the cliff is named reconciliation.

From The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain:

“Tom was a good deal bothered about what to do for a spoon, but he said we’d got to have it; so he took a think. When he had ciphered it out he told me how we was to do; then we went and waited around the spoon-basket till we see Aunt Sally coming, and then Tom went to counting the spoons and laying them out to one side, and I slid one of them up my sleeve, and Tom says:

“Why, Aunt Sally, there ain’t but nine spoons yet.”

She says:

“Go ‘long to your play, and don’t bother me. I know better, I counted ‘m myself.”

“Well, I’ve counted them twice, Aunty, and I can’t make but nine.”

She looked out of all patience, but of course she come to count — anybody would.

“I declare to gracious ther’ ain’t but nine!” she says. “Why, what in the world — plague take the things, I’ll count ‘m again.”

So I slipped back the one I had, and when she got done counting, she says:

“Hang the troublesome rubbage, ther’s ten now!” and she looked huffy and bothered both. But Tom says:

“Why, Aunty, I don’t think there’s ten.”

“You numskull, didn’t you see me count ‘m?”

“I know, but –”

“Well, I’ll count ‘m again.”

So I smouched one, and they come out nine, same as the other time. Well, she was in a tearing way — just a-trembling all over, she was so mad. But she counted and counted till she got that addled she’d start to count in the basket for a spoon sometimes; and so, three times they come out right, and three times they come out wrong. Then she grabbed up the basket and slammed it across the house and knocked the cat galley-west; and she said cle’r out and let her have some peace, and if we come bothering around her again betwixt that and dinner she’d skin us. So we had the odd spoon, and dropped it in her apron-pocket whilst she was a-giving us our sailing orders, and Jim got it all right, along with her shingle nail, before noon. We was very well satisfied with this business, and Tom allowed it was worth twice the trouble it took, because he said now she couldn’t ever count them spoons twice alike again to save her life; and wouldn’t believe she’d counted them right if she did; and said that after she’d about counted her head off for the next three days he judged she’d give it up and offer to kill anybody that wanted her to ever count them any more.

So we put the sheet back on the line that night, and stole one out of her closet; and kept on putting it back and stealing it again for a couple of days till she didn’t know how many sheets she had any more, and she didn’t care, and warn’t a-going to bullyrag the rest of her soul out about it, and wouldn’t count them again not to save her life; she druther die first.”

Published speculation that Patrick Kennedy (D-RI) will retire rather than face re-election is sort of like the rush to get out of D.C. prior to the snow storms last week.

Those who stayed and rode out the storm, really wish they rather had not. And the fact that a Kennedy is retiring does tie in the whole Senator Brown from deep blue Massachusetts thing.

And yes, the Dems prospects are worse than 1994 — then the generic ballot advantage for the Republicans was zero — that is, the generic ballot test number was equal for Dems and the GOP. Now, from one of the authors of the annual Almanac of American Politics:

“Barack Obama got the highest percentage of the vote for a Democratic candidate for president since 1964 and now he has plunged his party into its weakest position in the polls since that time.

“For confirmation, look at the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls on the generic vote for Congress: 45% Republican and 42% Democratic. Rasmussen Reports, which interviews only those who pass a screen as likely voters, has it 44%-36% Republican, ABC/Washington Poll has it 45%-42% Republican, NPR’s bipartisan poll has it 44%-39% Republican and Gallup has a 45%-45% tie. Democracy Corps, a Democratic outfit which has earned respect for its results, has Democrats ahead 46%-41%.

“ABC’s Gary Langer does a good job of putting these numbers into perspective. He writes, “It should be noted that vote preferences today don’t predict those in November, and generic congressional preferences, in particular, don’t reflect the idiosyncracies of individual races across the country. That said, the current 48-45 split in favor of Republican candidates among registered voters, while not a statistically significant advantage, is unusual. Republicans have held a numerical advantage just six times in scores of ABC/Post polls since 1981.”

“At this moment, Democrats look to be in worse shape with the voters than they have been at any time in the last 50 years.”

Toast, in other words.

This is the cost the delusionals will pay because they are not listening on health care, and will not listen — ever. Their determination is being matched by the determination of the voter to make sure they do not have to go through this again.

Richard Lowry has a really great insight in this column. I believe it to be true:

“It might have been the most revelatory moment of the Obama presidency. In an interview with Time magazine, a chastened President Obama talked of his sputtering Middle East peace initiative.

“This is just really hard,” he explained. “This is as intractable a problem as you get.”

“As an observation, this is as banal as it gets. After all the wars and all the terror attacks against Israel and all the frustrated American diplomatic forays across the last two administrations, no one should be surprised at the intractability of the Israeli-Arab conflict.

“But Obama sounded as if it were painful new information that had forced an unwelcome adjustment in his worldview.

“This speaks either to an astonishing historical ignorance (did he not know?) or a stupendous self-regard (did he not care because he thought he was so special?), or both.

There is already a debate over what went wrong with the Obama presidency.”

PepSuber, in other words.

The Trillion Dollar President ran on his “yes we can” slogan, but, it turns out, a former State Senator and a part-time U.S. Senator who campaigned instead of legislating may be able to convince people he can, but, well there is this: even Paul Krugman believes he can’t.

Krugman, in the NYT, writes “We’re doomed.”

Yes, the Krugman piece is about the Trillion Dollar President, and it’s titled “Clueless.” (Here is the Hill’s short version.)

This PepSuber video should clear up any questions about what Krugman is talking about. (Sorry, could not embed the video into the post, so you’ll have to click on this link.)

Does it surprise you that Team PepSuber still thinks they can?

The lack of enthusiasm, drive and willingness to do anything more on ObamaCare is the result of political malpractice on the part of the White House, the Speaker and Senator Reid.

For all their deal making and arm twisting, the public, the interest groups, the staff and Members of Congress are displaying passive-aggressive behavior towards health care reform.

It’s everywhere, but no one sees it. Especially the aforementioned delusionals who refuse to face reality — which is that everyone would rather do nothing at all.

The political liabilities and the policy liabilities for Democratic interest groups are devastating. For example, unions get their health plans taxes and abortion gets restricted, and there is no public option or Medicare buy-in for the progressives — not to mention the fact the public HATES ObamaCare.

Everyone knows the opponents are at NYET. So while the entire world inside the beltway responds with heel-digging-in and blown deadlines, endless and circular “strategy” sessions on ObamaCare, the delusionals see an opportunity to keep bringing it up, feeding the fires of the passive-aggressive behavior all around them.

Who brings up the most hated policy and the single, one thing most responsible for their political losses — in a Superbowl pre-game show? Delusionals, thats who.

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